UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos
Featherweight · May 16, 2026
Dooho Choi: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Daniel Santos: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Dooho Choi wins: 85%
Daniel Santos wins: 15%
Most likely outcome: Dooho Choi KO/TKO (35%)
90% confidence intervals
Dooho Choi: 72% – 106%
Daniel Santos: 8% – 15%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO | 35% |
| Dooho Choi wins by Submission | 26% |
| Dooho Choi wins by Decision | 24% |
| Daniel Santos wins by Decision | 9% |
| Daniel Santos wins by Submission | 4% |
| Daniel Santos wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Dooho Choi (Corner A); negative values favor Daniel Santos (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 157.333 |
| Striker score difference | 0.046 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.005 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.957 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.678 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.270 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.221 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.683 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1432.000 |
CI method: bootstrap