UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira
Heavyweight · May 30, 2026
Sergei Pavlovich: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Tallison Teixeira: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Sergei Pavlovich wins: 95%
Tallison Teixeira wins: 5%
Most likely outcome: Sergei Pavlovich Decision (41%)
90% confidence intervals
Sergei Pavlovich: 80% – 113%
Tallison Teixeira: 2% – 5%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO | 38% |
| Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission | 16% |
| Sergei Pavlovich wins by Decision | 41% |
| Tallison Teixeira wins by Decision | 4% |
| Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission | 1% |
| Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO | 1% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Sergei Pavlovich (Corner A); negative values favor Tallison Teixeira (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 221.813 |
| Striker score difference | 0.365 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.014 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.269 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.549 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.463 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.198 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.264 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2764.000 |
CI method: bootstrap