UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan — Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese
Middleweight · October 31, 2026
Win probability
Mickey Gall wins: 51%
Zach Reese wins: 49%
Most likely outcome: Mickey Gall Decision (26%)
90% confidence intervals
Mickey Gall: 45% – 54%
Zach Reese: 45% – 56%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mickey Gall wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
| Mickey Gall wins by Submission | 9% |
| Mickey Gall wins by Decision | 26% |
| Zach Reese wins by Decision | 22% |
| Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO | 20% |
| Zach Reese wins by Submission | 7% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Mickey Gall (Corner A); negative values favor Zach Reese (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 61.413 |
| Striker score difference | 0.038 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.122 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.211 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.262 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.269 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.289 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.139 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -792.000 |
CI method: bootstrap