UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan — Jacobe Smith vs Randy Brown
Welterweight · October 31, 2026
Jacobe Smith: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Randy Brown: 196 days idle (67% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Jacobe Smith wins: 65%
Randy Brown wins: 35%
Most likely outcome: Jacobe Smith Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Jacobe Smith: 55% – 78%
Randy Brown: 28% – 42%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith wins by KO/TKO | 24% |
| Jacobe Smith wins by Submission | 11% |
| Jacobe Smith wins by Decision | 30% |
| Randy Brown wins by Decision | 16% |
| Randy Brown wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
| Randy Brown wins by Submission | 8% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jacobe Smith (Corner A); negative values favor Randy Brown (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 8.065 |
| Striker score difference | 0.247 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.110 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.772 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.244 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.354 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.279 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.244 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -15.240 |
| Height difference (cm) | -12.700 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2019.000 |
CI method: bootstrap