UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan — Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall
Featherweight · October 31, 2026
Win probability
Dakota Hope wins: 47%
Francis Marshall wins: 53%
Most likely outcome: Dakota Hope Decision (27%)
90% confidence intervals
Dakota Hope: 38% – 49%
Francis Marshall: 51% – 63%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dakota Hope wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
| Dakota Hope wins by Submission | 5% |
| Dakota Hope wins by Decision | 27% |
| Francis Marshall wins by Decision | 23% |
| Francis Marshall wins by KO/TKO | 20% |
| Francis Marshall wins by Submission | 10% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Dakota Hope (Corner A); negative values favor Francis Marshall (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -16.476 |
| Striker score difference | 0.099 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.001 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.100 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.066 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.300 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.239 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.040 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -763.000 |
CI method: bootstrap