UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan — Cody Durden vs Ode' Osbourne
Flyweight · October 31, 2026
Cody Durden: 105 days idle (28% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Ode' Osbourne: 245 days idle (79% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Cody Durden wins: 39%
Ode' Osbourne wins: 61%
Most likely outcome: Ode' Osbourne Decision (25%)
90% confidence intervals
Cody Durden: 32% – 42%
Ode' Osbourne: 56% – 71%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
| Cody Durden wins by Submission | 5% |
| Cody Durden wins by Decision | 24% |
| Ode' Osbourne wins by Decision | 25% |
| Ode' Osbourne wins by KO/TKO | 24% |
| Ode' Osbourne wins by Submission | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Cody Durden (Corner A); negative values favor Ode' Osbourne (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -71.947 |
| Striker score difference | -0.026 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.094 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.315 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.139 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.234 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.263 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.008 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -15.240 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -286.000 |
CI method: bootstrap