UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan — Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein
Middleweight · October 31, 2026
Joe Kropschot: 74 days idle (20% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Nick Klein: 448 days idle (95% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Joe Kropschot wins: 70%
Nick Klein wins: 30%
Most likely outcome: Joe Kropschot Decision (32%)
90% confidence intervals
Joe Kropschot: 61% – 84%
Nick Klein: 23% – 33%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Joe Kropschot wins by KO/TKO | 24% |
| Joe Kropschot wins by Submission | 14% |
| Joe Kropschot wins by Decision | 32% |
| Nick Klein wins by Decision | 17% |
| Nick Klein wins by KO/TKO | 8% |
| Nick Klein wins by Submission | 5% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Joe Kropschot (Corner A); negative values favor Nick Klein (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 152.022 |
| Striker score difference | 0.174 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.076 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -1.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.343 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.202 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -81.000 |
CI method: bootstrap