UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan — Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová
Women's Flyweight · October 31, 2026
Win probability
Tainara Lisboa wins: 50%
Lucia Szabová wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Tainara Lisboa KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Tainara Lisboa: 0% – 300%
Lucia Szabová: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tainara Lisboa wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Tainara Lisboa wins by Submission | 17% |
| Tainara Lisboa wins by Decision | 17% |
| Lucia Szabová wins by Decision | 17% |
| Lucia Szabová wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Lucia Szabová wins by Submission | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Tainara Lisboa (Corner A); negative values favor Lucia Szabová (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |