UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker — Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço
Heavyweight · November 7, 2026
Thomas Petersen: 98 days idle (26% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Gabriel Lorenço: 60 days idle (17% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Thomas Petersen wins: 29%
Gabriel Lorenço wins: 71%
Most likely outcome: Gabriel Lorenço Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Thomas Petersen: 23% – 34%
Gabriel Lorenço: 58% – 88%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO | 8% |
| Thomas Petersen wins by Submission | 3% |
| Thomas Petersen wins by Decision | 18% |
| Gabriel Lorenço wins by Decision | 30% |
| Gabriel Lorenço wins by KO/TKO | 26% |
| Gabriel Lorenço wins by Submission | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Thomas Petersen (Corner A); negative values favor Gabriel Lorenço (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -120.541 |
| Striker score difference | -0.162 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.036 |
| Finish threat difference | -1.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.548 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.167 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.248 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1645.000 |
CI method: bootstrap