UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker — Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
Heavyweight · November 7, 2026
Johnny Walker: 28 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Waldo Cortes Acosta: 49 days idle (16% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Johnny Walker wins: 45%
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins: 55%
Most likely outcome: Waldo Cortes Acosta Decision (28%)
90% confidence intervals
Johnny Walker: 37% – 49%
Waldo Cortes Acosta: 48% – 65%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Johnny Walker wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
| Johnny Walker wins by Submission | 9% |
| Johnny Walker wins by Decision | 21% |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Decision | 28% |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Submission | 10% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Johnny Walker (Corner A); negative values favor Waldo Cortes Acosta (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -88.230 |
| Striker score difference | 0.084 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.056 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.623 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.281 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.240 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 179.000 |
CI method: bootstrap