UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker — Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo
Flyweight · November 7, 2026
Marcos Degli: 39 days idle (16% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Mitch Raposo: 133 days idle (41% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Marcos Degli wins: 60%
Mitch Raposo wins: 40%
Most likely outcome: Marcos Degli Decision (29%)
90% confidence intervals
Marcos Degli: 48% – 65%
Mitch Raposo: 35% – 51%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcos Degli wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Marcos Degli wins by Submission | 13% |
| Marcos Degli wins by Decision | 29% |
| Mitch Raposo wins by Decision | 21% |
| Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO | 14% |
| Mitch Raposo wins by Submission | 5% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Marcos Degli (Corner A); negative values favor Mitch Raposo (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 60.058 |
| Striker score difference | 0.140 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.188 |
| Finish threat difference | 1.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.325 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.337 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 575.000 |
CI method: bootstrap