UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker — Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavičius
Middleweight · November 7, 2026
Andre Petroski: 168 days idle (57% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Mantas Kondratavičius: 224 days idle (75% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Andre Petroski wins: 24%
Mantas Kondratavičius wins: 76%
Most likely outcome: Mantas Kondratavičius Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Andre Petroski: 18% – 25%
Mantas Kondratavičius: 72% – 87%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Andre Petroski wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
| Andre Petroski wins by Submission | 4% |
| Andre Petroski wins by Decision | 13% |
| Mantas Kondratavičius wins by Decision | 33% |
| Mantas Kondratavičius wins by KO/TKO | 29% |
| Mantas Kondratavičius wins by Submission | 14% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Andre Petroski (Corner A); negative values favor Mantas Kondratavičius (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -54.337 |
| Striker score difference | -0.205 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.065 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.069 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.430 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.157 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.201 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2957.000 |
CI method: bootstrap