UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev — Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev
Middleweight · October 24, 2026
Win probability
Jacob Malkoun wins: 71%
Abubakar Vagaev wins: 29%
Most likely outcome: Jacob Malkoun Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Jacob Malkoun: 60% – 77%
Abubakar Vagaev: 27% – 36%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacob Malkoun wins by KO/TKO | 25% |
| Jacob Malkoun wins by Submission | 11% |
| Jacob Malkoun wins by Decision | 34% |
| Abubakar Vagaev wins by Decision | 14% |
| Abubakar Vagaev wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
| Abubakar Vagaev wins by Submission | 5% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jacob Malkoun (Corner A); negative values favor Abubakar Vagaev (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 134.620 |
| Striker score difference | 0.165 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.021 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.157 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.179 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.333 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.227 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.029 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 864.000 |
CI method: bootstrap