UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev — Losene Keita vs Aaron Pico
Featherweight · October 24, 2026
Losene Keita: 42 days idle (16% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Aaron Pico: 189 days idle (65% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Losene Keita wins: 55%
Aaron Pico wins: 45%
Most likely outcome: Aaron Pico Decision (24%)
90% confidence intervals
Losene Keita: 50% – 64%
Aaron Pico: 37% – 49%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO | 24% |
| Losene Keita wins by Submission | 15% |
| Losene Keita wins by Decision | 16% |
| Aaron Pico wins by Decision | 24% |
| Aaron Pico wins by KO/TKO | 13% |
| Aaron Pico wins by Submission | 9% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Losene Keita (Corner A); negative values favor Aaron Pico (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 24.275 |
| Striker score difference | -0.043 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.162 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.492 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.532 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.208 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.151 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.262 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 463.000 |
CI method: bootstrap