Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7 — Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega
Welterweight · September 22, 2026
Win probability
Alvi Dasuyev wins: 50%
Jaden Ortega wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Alvi Dasuyev KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Alvi Dasuyev: 0% – 300%
Jaden Ortega: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alvi Dasuyev wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Alvi Dasuyev wins by Submission | 17% |
| Alvi Dasuyev wins by Decision | 17% |
| Jaden Ortega wins by Decision | 17% |
| Jaden Ortega wins by Submission | 17% |
| Jaden Ortega wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Alvi Dasuyev (Corner A); negative values favor Jaden Ortega (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |