Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 — Joe Kropschot vs Jon Kunneman
Middleweight · August 11, 2026
Win probability
Joe Kropschot wins: 50%
Jon Kunneman wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Joe Kropschot KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Joe Kropschot: 0% – 300%
Jon Kunneman: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Joe Kropschot wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Joe Kropschot wins by Submission | 17% |
| Joe Kropschot wins by Decision | 17% |
| Jon Kunneman wins by Decision | 17% |
| Jon Kunneman wins by Submission | 17% |
| Jon Kunneman wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Joe Kropschot (Corner A); negative values favor Jon Kunneman (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |