Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 — Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo
Featherweight · August 11, 2026
Win probability
Ananias Mulumba wins: 50%
Tom Pagliarulo wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Ananias Mulumba KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Ananias Mulumba: 0% – 300%
Tom Pagliarulo: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ananias Mulumba wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Ananias Mulumba wins by Submission | 17% |
| Ananias Mulumba wins by Decision | 17% |
| Tom Pagliarulo wins by Decision | 17% |
| Tom Pagliarulo wins by Submission | 17% |
| Tom Pagliarulo wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Ananias Mulumba (Corner A); negative values favor Tom Pagliarulo (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |