Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 — Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega
Lightweight · August 11, 2026
Win probability
Abe Alsaghir wins: 50%
Fabrizio Escarrega wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Abe Alsaghir KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Abe Alsaghir: 0% – 300%
Fabrizio Escarrega: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Abe Alsaghir wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Abe Alsaghir wins by Submission | 17% |
| Abe Alsaghir wins by Decision | 17% |
| Fabrizio Escarrega wins by Decision | 17% |
| Fabrizio Escarrega wins by Submission | 17% |
| Fabrizio Escarrega wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Abe Alsaghir (Corner A); negative values favor Fabrizio Escarrega (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |