UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song — Junior Tafa vs Ce Liu
Light Heavyweight · August 29, 2026
Win probability
Junior Tafa wins: 50%
Ce Liu wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Junior Tafa KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Junior Tafa: 0% – 300%
Ce Liu: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Junior Tafa wins by Submission | 17% |
| Junior Tafa wins by Decision | 17% |
| Ce Liu wins by Decision | 17% |
| Ce Liu wins by Submission | 17% |
| Ce Liu wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Junior Tafa (Corner A); negative values favor Ce Liu (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |