UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song — Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya
Flyweight · August 29, 2026
Kevin Borjas: 63 days idle (17% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Rei Tsuruya: 532 days idle (96% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Kevin Borjas wins: 27%
Rei Tsuruya wins: 73%
Most likely outcome: Rei Tsuruya Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Kevin Borjas: 18% – 27%
Rei Tsuruya: 70% – 85%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
| Kevin Borjas wins by Submission | 4% |
| Kevin Borjas wins by Decision | 15% |
| Rei Tsuruya wins by Decision | 33% |
| Rei Tsuruya wins by Submission | 24% |
| Rei Tsuruya wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Kevin Borjas (Corner A); negative values favor Rei Tsuruya (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -68.431 |
| Striker score difference | -0.093 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.120 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.324 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.195 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.161 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1659.000 |
CI method: bootstrap