UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song — Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez
Flyweight · August 29, 2026
Sumudaerji: 84 days idle (21% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Alex Perez: 84 days idle (21% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Sumudaerji wins: 48%
Alex Perez wins: 52%
Most likely outcome: Alex Perez Decision (28%)
90% confidence intervals
Sumudaerji: 39% – 57%
Alex Perez: 43% – 61%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sumudaerji wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
| Sumudaerji wins by Submission | 8% |
| Sumudaerji wins by Decision | 24% |
| Alex Perez wins by Decision | 28% |
| Alex Perez wins by Submission | 13% |
| Alex Perez wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Sumudaerji (Corner A); negative values favor Alex Perez (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -14.200 |
| Striker score difference | 0.123 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.005 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.331 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.474 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.300 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.205 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.009 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 17.780 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1400.000 |
CI method: bootstrap