UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song — Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan
Women's Strawweight · August 29, 2026
Denise Gomes: 287 days idle (85% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Yan Xiaonan: 497 days idle (96% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Denise Gomes wins: 50%
Yan Xiaonan wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Yan Xiaonan Decision (26%)
90% confidence intervals
Denise Gomes: 42% – 57%
Yan Xiaonan: 43% – 60%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Denise Gomes wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Denise Gomes wins by Submission | 8% |
| Denise Gomes wins by Decision | 25% |
| Yan Xiaonan wins by Decision | 26% |
| Yan Xiaonan wins by Submission | 15% |
| Yan Xiaonan wins by KO/TKO | 9% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Denise Gomes (Corner A); negative values favor Yan Xiaonan (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -14.503 |
| Striker score difference | 0.029 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.117 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.192 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.034 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.255 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.281 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.010 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 3849.000 |
CI method: bootstrap