UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song — Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight · August 29, 2026
Song Yadong: 84 days idle (21% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Umar Nurmagomedov: 210 days idle (71% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Song Yadong wins: 41%
Umar Nurmagomedov wins: 59%
Most likely outcome: Umar Nurmagomedov Decision (29%)
90% confidence intervals
Song Yadong: 35% – 44%
Umar Nurmagomedov: 53% – 68%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Song Yadong wins by KO/TKO | 12% |
| Song Yadong wins by Submission | 8% |
| Song Yadong wins by Decision | 22% |
| Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Decision | 29% |
| Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Submission | 17% |
| Umar Nurmagomedov wins by KO/TKO | 12% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Song Yadong (Corner A); negative values favor Umar Nurmagomedov (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -22.053 |
| Striker score difference | -0.083 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.110 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.260 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.044 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.205 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.173 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 699.000 |
CI method: bootstrap