UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues — Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice
Women's Strawweight · August 22, 2026
Win probability
Jeisla Chaves wins: 48%
Carli Judice wins: 52%
Most likely outcome: Carli Judice Decision (28%)
90% confidence intervals
Jeisla Chaves: 43% – 55%
Carli Judice: 45% – 58%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO | 13% |
| Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission | 8% |
| Jeisla Chaves wins by Decision | 27% |
| Carli Judice wins by Decision | 28% |
| Carli Judice wins by Submission | 15% |
| Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO | 9% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jeisla Chaves (Corner A); negative values favor Carli Judice (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.250 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.240 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.060 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -758.000 |
CI method: bootstrap