UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues — Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez
Middleweight · August 22, 2026
Gregory Rodrigues: 161 days idle (54% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Anthony Hernandez: 175 days idle (60% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Gregory Rodrigues wins: 51%
Anthony Hernandez wins: 49%
Most likely outcome: Gregory Rodrigues Decision (27%)
90% confidence intervals
Gregory Rodrigues: 44% – 58%
Anthony Hernandez: 43% – 54%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
| Gregory Rodrigues wins by Submission | 9% |
| Gregory Rodrigues wins by Decision | 27% |
| Anthony Hernandez wins by Decision | 26% |
| Anthony Hernandez wins by Submission | 14% |
| Anthony Hernandez wins by KO/TKO | 10% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Gregory Rodrigues (Corner A); negative values favor Anthony Hernandez (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 6.389 |
| Striker score difference | 0.021 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.121 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.033 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.144 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.260 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.172 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.161 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -609.000 |
CI method: bootstrap