UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano
Women's Flyweight · July 18, 2026
Win probability
Dione Barbosa wins: 50%
Anna Melisano wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Dione Barbosa KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Dione Barbosa: 0% – 300%
Anna Melisano: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dione Barbosa wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Dione Barbosa wins by Submission | 17% |
| Dione Barbosa wins by Decision | 17% |
| Anna Melisano wins by Decision | 17% |
| Anna Melisano wins by Submission | 17% |
| Anna Melisano wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Dione Barbosa (Corner A); negative values favor Anna Melisano (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |