UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Alvin Hines vs RJ Harris
Heavyweight · July 18, 2026
Win probability
Alvin Hines wins: 50%
RJ Harris wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Alvin Hines KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Alvin Hines: 0% – 300%
RJ Harris: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Alvin Hines wins by Submission | 17% |
| Alvin Hines wins by Decision | 17% |
| RJ Harris wins by Decision | 17% |
| RJ Harris wins by Submission | 17% |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Alvin Hines (Corner A); negative values favor RJ Harris (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |