UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Seokhyeon Ko vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Welterweight · July 18, 2026
Seokhyeon Ko: 252 days idle (80% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: 140 days idle (45% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Seokhyeon Ko wins: 73%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins: 27%
Most likely outcome: Seokhyeon Ko Decision (43%)
90% confidence intervals
Seokhyeon Ko: 65% – 84%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: 20% – 29%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO | 19% |
| Seokhyeon Ko wins by Submission | 11% |
| Seokhyeon Ko wins by Decision | 43% |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Decision | 16% |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Submission | 8% |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Seokhyeon Ko (Corner A); negative values favor Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 73.597 |
| Striker score difference | 0.077 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.100 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.285 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.300 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1951.000 |
CI method: bootstrap