UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry — Jose Ochoa vs Charles Johnson
Flyweight · August 15, 2026
Jose Ochoa: 91 days idle (23% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Charles Johnson: 42 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Jose Ochoa wins: 55%
Charles Johnson wins: 45%
Most likely outcome: Jose Ochoa Decision (31%)
90% confidence intervals
Jose Ochoa: 49% – 64%
Charles Johnson: 37% – 51%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jose Ochoa wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
| Jose Ochoa wins by Submission | 6% |
| Jose Ochoa wins by Decision | 31% |
| Charles Johnson wins by Decision | 23% |
| Charles Johnson wins by Submission | 13% |
| Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO | 10% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jose Ochoa (Corner A); negative values favor Charles Johnson (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -8.604 |
| Striker score difference | 0.195 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.010 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.051 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.321 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.352 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.202 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.048 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 3643.000 |
CI method: bootstrap