UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry — Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
Light Heavyweight · August 15, 2026
Win probability
Lucas Fernando wins: 50%
Rafael Tobias wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Lucas Fernando KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Lucas Fernando: 0% – 300%
Rafael Tobias: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lucas Fernando wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Lucas Fernando wins by Submission | 17% |
| Lucas Fernando wins by Decision | 17% |
| Rafael Tobias wins by Decision | 17% |
| Rafael Tobias wins by Submission | 17% |
| Rafael Tobias wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Lucas Fernando (Corner A); negative values favor Rafael Tobias (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |