UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry — Joel Álvarez vs Chidi Njokuani
Welterweight · August 15, 2026
Joel Álvarez: 91 days idle (23% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Chidi Njokuani: 168 days idle (57% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Joel Álvarez wins: 53%
Chidi Njokuani wins: 47%
Most likely outcome: Joel Álvarez Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Joel Álvarez: 48% – 62%
Chidi Njokuani: 38% – 52%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO | 14% |
| Joel Álvarez wins by Submission | 9% |
| Joel Álvarez wins by Decision | 30% |
| Chidi Njokuani wins by Decision | 23% |
| Chidi Njokuani wins by Submission | 14% |
| Chidi Njokuani wins by KO/TKO | 9% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Joel Álvarez (Corner A); negative values favor Chidi Njokuani (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -6.918 |
| Striker score difference | -0.112 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.036 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.201 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.301 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.184 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.225 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1522.000 |
CI method: bootstrap