UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry — Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson
Middleweight · August 15, 2026
Eric McConico: 105 days idle (28% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Donte Johnson: 154 days idle (51% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Eric McConico wins: 22%
Donte Johnson wins: 78%
Most likely outcome: Donte Johnson Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Eric McConico: 14% – 23%
Donte Johnson: 73% – 93%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
| Eric McConico wins by Submission | 3% |
| Eric McConico wins by Decision | 15% |
| Donte Johnson wins by Decision | 33% |
| Donte Johnson wins by Submission | 27% |
| Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Eric McConico (Corner A); negative values favor Donte Johnson (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -92.618 |
| Striker score difference | -0.077 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.105 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.347 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.641 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.213 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.172 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | 10.160 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -3183.000 |
CI method: bootstrap