UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
Flyweight · July 11, 2026
Cody Durden: 112 days idle (31% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Alessandro Costa: 84 days idle (21% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Cody Durden wins: 17%
Alessandro Costa wins: 83%
Most likely outcome: Alessandro Costa Decision (36%)
90% confidence intervals
Cody Durden: 11% – 19%
Alessandro Costa: 74% – 97%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
| Cody Durden wins by Submission | 3% |
| Cody Durden wins by Decision | 11% |
| Alessandro Costa wins by Decision | 36% |
| Alessandro Costa wins by Submission | 30% |
| Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Cody Durden (Corner A); negative values favor Alessandro Costa (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -104.607 |
| Striker score difference | -0.092 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.079 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.408 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.036 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.199 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.264 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.009 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1766.000 |
CI method: bootstrap