UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Terrance McKinney vs King Green
Lightweight · July 11, 2026
Terrance McKinney: 91 days idle (23% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
King Green: 49 days idle (16% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Terrance McKinney wins: 30%
King Green wins: 70%
Most likely outcome: King Green Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Terrance McKinney: 23% – 33%
King Green: 64% – 81%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO | 10% |
| Terrance McKinney wins by Submission | 6% |
| Terrance McKinney wins by Decision | 14% |
| King Green wins by Decision | 33% |
| King Green wins by Submission | 24% |
| King Green wins by KO/TKO | 12% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Terrance McKinney (Corner A); negative values favor King Green (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -61.508 |
| Striker score difference | -0.114 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.119 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.117 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.085 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.158 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.295 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.202 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2928.000 |
CI method: bootstrap