UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat
Bantamweight · July 11, 2026
Ethyn Ewing: 84 days idle (21% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Farid Basharat: 140 days idle (44% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Ethyn Ewing wins: 16%
Farid Basharat wins: 84%
Most likely outcome: Farid Basharat Decision (40%)
90% confidence intervals
Ethyn Ewing: 8% – 16%
Farid Basharat: 79% – 101%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ethyn Ewing wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
| Ethyn Ewing wins by Submission | 2% |
| Ethyn Ewing wins by Decision | 10% |
| Farid Basharat wins by Decision | 40% |
| Farid Basharat wins by Submission | 28% |
| Farid Basharat wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Ethyn Ewing (Corner A); negative values favor Farid Basharat (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -96.636 |
| Striker score difference | 0.109 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.012 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.928 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.301 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.223 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -530.000 |
CI method: bootstrap