UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Zachary Reese vs Ryan Gandra
Middleweight · July 11, 2026
Win probability
Zachary Reese wins: 50%
Ryan Gandra wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Zachary Reese KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Zachary Reese: 0% – 300%
Ryan Gandra: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zachary Reese wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Zachary Reese wins by Submission | 17% |
| Zachary Reese wins by Decision | 17% |
| Ryan Gandra wins by Decision | 17% |
| Ryan Gandra wins by Submission | 17% |
| Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Zachary Reese (Corner A); negative values favor Ryan Gandra (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |