UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Wang Cong vs Tracy Cortez
Women's Flyweight · July 11, 2026
Wang Cong: 385 days idle (92% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Tracy Cortez: 224 days idle (75% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Wang Cong wins: 37%
Tracy Cortez wins: 63%
Most likely outcome: Tracy Cortez Decision (28%)
90% confidence intervals
Wang Cong: 29% – 41%
Tracy Cortez: 56% – 75%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wang Cong wins by KO/TKO | 12% |
| Wang Cong wins by Submission | 5% |
| Wang Cong wins by Decision | 20% |
| Tracy Cortez wins by Decision | 28% |
| Tracy Cortez wins by Submission | 20% |
| Tracy Cortez wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Wang Cong (Corner A); negative values favor Tracy Cortez (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -35.370 |
| Striker score difference | 0.258 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.054 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.153 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.147 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.369 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.182 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.062 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -574.000 |
CI method: bootstrap