UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Adrian Yanez vs Cody Garbrandt
Bantamweight · July 11, 2026
Adrian Yanez: 91 days idle (23% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Cody Garbrandt: 112 days idle (31% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Adrian Yanez wins: 48%
Cody Garbrandt wins: 52%
Most likely outcome: Cody Garbrandt Decision (26%)
90% confidence intervals
Adrian Yanez: 39% – 53%
Cody Garbrandt: 47% – 61%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Adrian Yanez wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Adrian Yanez wins by Submission | 7% |
| Adrian Yanez wins by Decision | 24% |
| Cody Garbrandt wins by Decision | 26% |
| Cody Garbrandt wins by Submission | 16% |
| Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO | 10% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Adrian Yanez (Corner A); negative values favor Cody Garbrandt (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -11.239 |
| Striker score difference | 0.135 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.009 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.209 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.116 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.322 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.188 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.057 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 876.000 |
CI method: bootstrap