UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas
Middleweight · July 11, 2026
Cesar Almeida: 196 days idle (67% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Damian Pinas: 119 days idle (34% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Cesar Almeida wins: 46%
Damian Pinas wins: 54%
Most likely outcome: Cesar Almeida Decision (31%)
90% confidence intervals
Cesar Almeida: 37% – 54%
Damian Pinas: 45% – 64%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cesar Almeida wins by KO/TKO | 9% |
| Cesar Almeida wins by Submission | 6% |
| Cesar Almeida wins by Decision | 31% |
| Damian Pinas wins by Decision | 25% |
| Damian Pinas wins by Submission | 17% |
| Damian Pinas wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Cesar Almeida (Corner A); negative values favor Damian Pinas (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -11.352 |
| Striker score difference | -0.071 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.122 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.722 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.206 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.160 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -5097.000 |
CI method: bootstrap