UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley
Featherweight · July 11, 2026
Kai Kamaka III: 1792 days idle (99% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Luke Riley: 98 days idle (25% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Kai Kamaka III wins: 14%
Luke Riley wins: 86%
Most likely outcome: Luke Riley Decision (36%)
90% confidence intervals
Kai Kamaka III: 8% – 14%
Luke Riley: 80% – 100%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO | 3% |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by Submission | 2% |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by Decision | 9% |
| Luke Riley wins by Decision | 36% |
| Luke Riley wins by Submission | 34% |
| Luke Riley wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Kai Kamaka III (Corner A); negative values favor Luke Riley (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -135.484 |
| Striker score difference | -0.130 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.110 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.439 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.399 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.185 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.282 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1637.000 |
CI method: bootstrap