UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
Light Heavyweight · July 11, 2026
Win probability
Robert Whittaker wins: 15%
Nikita Krylov wins: 85%
Most likely outcome: Nikita Krylov Decision (38%)
90% confidence intervals
Robert Whittaker: 9% – 15%
Nikita Krylov: 81% – 98%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
| Robert Whittaker wins by Submission | 2% |
| Robert Whittaker wins by Decision | 10% |
| Nikita Krylov wins by Decision | 38% |
| Nikita Krylov wins by Submission | 32% |
| Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Robert Whittaker (Corner A); negative values favor Nikita Krylov (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -112.288 |
| Striker score difference | -0.032 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.094 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.040 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.324 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.234 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.277 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.157 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -443.000 |
CI method: bootstrap