UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon Royval
Flyweight · July 11, 2026
Lone'er Kavanagh: 119 days idle (34% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Brandon Royval: 196 days idle (67% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Lone'er Kavanagh wins: 49%
Brandon Royval wins: 51%
Most likely outcome: Brandon Royval Decision (24%)
90% confidence intervals
Lone'er Kavanagh: 43% – 60%
Brandon Royval: 41% – 59%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
| Lone'er Kavanagh wins by Submission | 8% |
| Lone'er Kavanagh wins by Decision | 23% |
| Brandon Royval wins by Decision | 24% |
| Brandon Royval wins by Submission | 16% |
| Brandon Royval wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Lone'er Kavanagh (Corner A); negative values favor Brandon Royval (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -11.534 |
| Striker score difference | -0.021 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.021 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.097 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.079 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.234 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.209 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2488.000 |
CI method: bootstrap