UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Mario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen
Bantamweight · July 11, 2026
Mario Bautista: 140 days idle (44% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Cory Sandhagen: 266 days idle (82% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Mario Bautista wins: 48%
Cory Sandhagen wins: 52%
Most likely outcome: Mario Bautista Decision (27%)
90% confidence intervals
Mario Bautista: 42% – 54%
Cory Sandhagen: 46% – 57%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mario Bautista wins by KO/TKO | 14% |
| Mario Bautista wins by Submission | 7% |
| Mario Bautista wins by Decision | 27% |
| Cory Sandhagen wins by Decision | 27% |
| Cory Sandhagen wins by Submission | 16% |
| Cory Sandhagen wins by KO/TKO | 9% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Mario Bautista (Corner A); negative values favor Cory Sandhagen (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -6.088 |
| Striker score difference | 0.005 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.070 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.041 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.001 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.250 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.258 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.008 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 437.000 |
CI method: bootstrap