UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Paddy Pimblett vs Benoît Saint Denis
Lightweight · July 11, 2026
Paddy Pimblett: 154 days idle (51% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Benoît Saint Denis: 147 days idle (48% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Paddy Pimblett wins: 37%
Benoît Saint Denis wins: 63%
Most likely outcome: Benoît Saint Denis Decision (29%)
90% confidence intervals
Paddy Pimblett: 30% – 42%
Benoît Saint Denis: 55% – 73%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO | 13% |
| Paddy Pimblett wins by Submission | 6% |
| Paddy Pimblett wins by Decision | 18% |
| Benoît Saint Denis wins by Decision | 29% |
| Benoît Saint Denis wins by Submission | 20% |
| Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO | 14% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Paddy Pimblett (Corner A); negative values favor Benoît Saint Denis (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -36.917 |
| Striker score difference | -0.068 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.104 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.363 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.207 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.204 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.184 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.089 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -349.000 |
CI method: bootstrap