UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor
Welterweight · July 11, 2026
Win probability
Max Holloway wins: 33%
Conor McGregor wins: 67%
Most likely outcome: Conor McGregor Decision (29%)
90% confidence intervals
Max Holloway: 28% – 41%
Conor McGregor: 55% – 78%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO | 8% |
| Max Holloway wins by Submission | 4% |
| Max Holloway wins by Decision | 21% |
| Conor McGregor wins by Decision | 29% |
| Conor McGregor wins by Submission | 22% |
| Conor McGregor wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Max Holloway (Corner A); negative values favor Conor McGregor (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -63.866 |
| Striker score difference | -0.009 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.002 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.367 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.052 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.246 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.241 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.044 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1238.000 |
CI method: bootstrap