UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz
Bantamweight · May 16, 2026
Malcolm Wellmaker: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Juan Diaz: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Malcolm Wellmaker wins: 37%
Juan Diaz wins: 63%
Most likely outcome: Juan Diaz Decision (28%)
90% confidence intervals
Malcolm Wellmaker: 29% – 42%
Juan Diaz: 56% – 75%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO | 8% |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Submission | 4% |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Decision | 25% |
| Juan Diaz wins by Decision | 28% |
| Juan Diaz wins by Submission | 19% |
| Juan Diaz wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Malcolm Wellmaker (Corner A); negative values favor Juan Diaz (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -58.638 |
| Striker score difference | 0.062 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.176 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.569 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.569 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.281 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.143 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1460.000 |
CI method: bootstrap