UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Iwo Baraniewski vs Billy Elekana
Light Heavyweight · June 6, 2026
Iwo Baraniewski: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Billy Elekana: 140 days idle (44% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Iwo Baraniewski wins: 71%
Billy Elekana wins: 29%
Most likely outcome: Iwo Baraniewski Decision (37%)
90% confidence intervals
Iwo Baraniewski: 65% – 88%
Billy Elekana: 18% – 30%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO | 25% |
| Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission | 10% |
| Iwo Baraniewski wins by Decision | 37% |
| Billy Elekana wins by Decision | 17% |
| Billy Elekana wins by Submission | 7% |
| Billy Elekana wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Iwo Baraniewski (Corner A); negative values favor Billy Elekana (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 70.742 |
| Striker score difference | 0.249 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.033 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.530 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.289 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.388 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.199 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.289 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1272.000 |
CI method: bootstrap