UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Marcus McGhee vs Jakub Wiklacz
Bantamweight · June 6, 2026
Marcus McGhee: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Jakub Wiklacz: 133 days idle (41% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Marcus McGhee wins: 79%
Jakub Wiklacz wins: 21%
Most likely outcome: Marcus McGhee Decision (46%)
90% confidence intervals
Marcus McGhee: 70% – 93%
Jakub Wiklacz: 14% – 21%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO | 21% |
| Marcus McGhee wins by Submission | 11% |
| Marcus McGhee wins by Decision | 46% |
| Jakub Wiklacz wins by Decision | 12% |
| Jakub Wiklacz wins by Submission | 6% |
| Jakub Wiklacz wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Marcus McGhee (Corner A); negative values favor Jakub Wiklacz (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 82.593 |
| Striker score difference | 0.124 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.106 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.417 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.315 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.163 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2318.000 |
CI method: bootstrap