UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa
Featherweight · May 16, 2026
Arnold Allen: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Melquizael Costa: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Arnold Allen wins: 64%
Melquizael Costa wins: 36%
Most likely outcome: Arnold Allen Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Arnold Allen: 58% – 73%
Melquizael Costa: 29% – 40%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arnold Allen wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
| Arnold Allen wins by Submission | 12% |
| Arnold Allen wins by Decision | 34% |
| Melquizael Costa wins by Decision | 19% |
| Melquizael Costa wins by Submission | 10% |
| Melquizael Costa wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Arnold Allen (Corner A); negative values favor Melquizael Costa (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 36.358 |
| Striker score difference | -0.124 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.012 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.414 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.189 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.215 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -966.000 |
CI method: bootstrap