UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres — Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres
Lightweight · June 27, 2026
Rafael Fiziev: 140 days idle (44% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Manuel Torres: 196 days idle (67% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Rafael Fiziev wins: 21%
Manuel Torres wins: 79%
Most likely outcome: Manuel Torres Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Rafael Fiziev: 13% – 21%
Manuel Torres: 74% – 94%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
| Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission | 3% |
| Rafael Fiziev wins by Decision | 13% |
| Manuel Torres wins by Decision | 33% |
| Manuel Torres wins by Submission | 28% |
| Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO | 19% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Rafael Fiziev (Corner A); negative values favor Manuel Torres (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -109.444 |
| Striker score difference | -0.165 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.038 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.735 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.208 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.172 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.184 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.016 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -750.000 |
CI method: bootstrap